19 storms called hurricane season predicted

(CNN) – After two consecutive years of exhausting the list of hurricane names, forecasters expect 19 named storms this hurricane season, five more than usual.

Of the 19 storms, nine are expected to become hurricanes, and four will become major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher, with winds in excess of 110 miles per hour, according to hurricane experts at Colorado State University (CSU). ).

The CSU Tropical Meteorological Project team released its annual seasonal forecast for hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin on Thursday, marking the 39th year they released a pre-season report.

The report details the highly active hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, and includes above-average forecasts for all categories of storms.

been seen

This year’s outlook looks eerily similar to the forecasts of the past two years.

Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist in CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences and lead author of the report, compared the 2022 forecast with the 2021 and 2020 forecasts.

“For example, in both April 2020 and April 2021, we predicted eight tornadoes and four major hurricanes. This year, we forecast nine tornadoes and four major hurricanes,” Klotzbach told CNN.

The new hurricane season is shaping up to be, if not a little more active, than last year’s season, which was the third busiest season ever.

Available names for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season

The names of tropical storms and hurricanes are chosen in alphabetical order and alternate between masculine and feminine. It is rare that the entire list is required in one season.

  • Alex
  • Bonnie
  • Collin
  • Daniel
  • Earl
  • Fiona
  • Gaston
  • Hermine
  • Ian
  • Julia
  • Karl
  • Lisa
  • Martin
  • Nicole
  • Owen
  • Pola
  • Richard
  • Buyer
  • Tobias
  • Virgin
  • Walter

“The team expects hurricane activity in 2022 to be about 130% of the average 1991-2020 season. By comparison, 2021 cyclone activity was about 120% of the average season,” the report stated.

19 named storms this coming season were projected to top the past two years as the most named storms that CSU predicted in its April forecast.

“One of the reasons we expect more named storms than in previous years is that we are now naming more storms than ever before due to technological improvements,” Klotsbach explained.

Thanks to improvements in satellites, Klotzbach added, they can now detect weak storms that may have gone unnoticed even 20 or 30 years ago.

With naming schemes sold out in the past two years, 2022 is likely to add to the record for the third year in a row.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has a supplementary list of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, just in case.

Additional names for tropical cyclones for 2022

If there are more than 21 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean in 2022, then the storms are named from this additional list:

  • Adria
  • Braylin
  • charity
  • Dishon
  • Emery
  • boost
  • Gemma
  • heath
  • Island
  • Yacoub
  • my treasure
  • Lucio
  • maquila
  • Nolan
  • Orlanda
  • pax
  • ronin
  • Sufi
  • Taichun
  • Viviana
  • will

Why would such a season be active in the Atlantic?

The main factor contributing to the increased activity of the Atlantic season is the “potential absence of an El Niño event,” according to CSU hurricane researchers.

The equatorial Pacific is currently undergoing weak La Niña conditions, a climate pattern known to produce cooler-than-average temperatures around the equator.

This phenomenon has repercussions on the climate of the whole world.

La Niña provides favorable conditions for hurricanes in contrast to those of El Niño. Hurricane seasons under El Niño conditions are known for high-level wind patterns across the Caribbean that break up hurricanes as they try to form, making the seasons less active.

According to the report, “While La Niña may weaken and turn to neutral conditions by summer, the CSU does not currently expect an El Niño event at the height of the Atlantic hurricane season.”

Atlantic hurricanes

On the map: Above average sea surface temperatures.

“Warmer conditions in the Caribbean and the subtropical eastern Atlantic also favor an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2022,” the report added.

Tropical storms yearn for warm ocean waters, which helps promote their growth and development. It’s one of the main reasons scientists say the climate crisis is changing Atlantic hurricanes. Warmer water and air can increase precipitation, making it more likely that a landfall hurricane will cause catastrophic flooding. Sea-level rise has also increased damage from storms.

“We know that hurricanes in general intensify faster,” Kathryn Hayhoe, chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy and a professor at Texas Tech University, previously told CNN. “It’s bigger and stronger than it would have been otherwise; it has a lot of rain associated with it, and rising sea levels are exacerbating storms.”

Although there has been an increase in hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin in recent seasons, research shows a general trend of declining hurricanes worldwide since 1990.

“We attribute this to the trend of more frequent La Niña and less frequent El Niño events over the past 30 years,” Klotzbach told CNN, citing his recently published research.

According to Klotzbach, La Niña conditions tend to increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic, but reduce hurricane/cyclone activity in the Pacific basin.

“Because the Pacific Ocean is a much larger basin and generally generates much more storms than the Atlantic Ocean, we’ve seen a general trend toward fewer tropical cyclones with hurricane force globally, despite the increased activity we’ve seen in the Atlantic,” Klotzbach said.

How to prepare for hurricane season

“It only takes one storm near you to make this season active,” said Michael Bell, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at California State University.

Coastal communities have been warned to start taking precautions for the active hurricane season now.

According to the report, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the US coast is 71%, well above the average of 52% in the last century.

The more than two-thirds chance of a major hurricane making landfall should inspire residents of hurricane-prone areas to take action now. The damage caused by Category 4 Hurricane Ida, which hit the Gulf of Mexico coast in 2021, is a stark reminder of the power of major tropical cyclones.

Atlantic Hurricane Ida

Hurricane Ida left behind it widespread destruction and flooding, as seen here in Point or Chines, Louisiana.

Hurricane Preparedness Week is observed May 1-7, when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) encourages people to identify their risks in the event of a hurricane, develop an evacuation plan and collect emergency supplies in the event of a hurricane. space.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC), a division of NOAA, is expected to release its first five-day tropical forecast for the 2022 hurricane season on May 15.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center is scheduled to release its seasonal forecast on May 24.

The CSU will also update its forecasts on June 2, July 7 and August 4 to keep the public as updated as possible.

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