- Cristina J. Orgaz @cjorgaz
- BBC News Mundo
Fountain of the image, Getty Images
Russia has announced that it will cut off gas supplies to parts of the European Union and accuse it of “blackmailing” and “militarizing” its energy supply.
A new escalation of tensions has erupted since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine by half a million people from Poland and Bulgaria, who’s been a gas smuggler across the Moscow border.
Russia sells its most important customers for its gas and incense that generates these contracts, per launch a world-wide message: defend yourself with all the weapons you have at your fingertips against sanctions imposed by Occidente.
Hydrocarbon exports are the most powerful of all in Russia.
“Gazprom ‘s announcement that it unilaterally suspends gas supplies to its customers in Europe is another intent of Russia use the gas as a venting instrument“, said the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in a statement.
Here you will find 3 questions that are being addressed:
Fountain of the image, Getty Images
The ruble, the Russian currency, has approximately 40% of its value against the dollar on the basis of its principles.
1.- ¿Por quésos países?
The negative of ambas naciones a pay Gazprom’s Russian staple in ruble in dollars or euros the point at the Kremlin’s point of departure, which draws the grid of the gas pipelines that transport the fuel.
Russia exchanges the payment method for its clients for a range of economically sanctioned sanctions across Europe.
From April 1, European companies are you must enter a local currency account and Gazprombank.
Losses in ruble benefited the Russian economy and depreciated in currency.
Experts create that with this medium, Moscow trawl to curb the depreciation of the Russian divisionwhich has turned 40% of its value against the dollar from the car dealer.
Fountain of the image, Getty Images
More than a million people flee Poland to Ukraine since the Russian invasion of February 24.
“Why does Russia want to pay the ruble, when can it print all the ruble it wants?” Said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“Eludir la sanciones financieras es más fácil with the ruble, that which binds the ruble in Bitcoin from the world of the divisions (although the ruble is voluntarily low and has a fundamental value) “, he replied.
Some of the EU member states are all about exchange rates a “contract grave inclination”.
Poland, which has been waging war against the Ukrainians since the war, announced sanctions against important Russian companies and against 50 oligarchs who saw their activities activated in the country.
Fountain of the image, Getty Images
According to Bloomberg, some European companies pay for the advertising system in Russia, but do not list the names of the companies.
Nathan Piper, Investec’s chief oil and gas investigator, told the BBC that interference between Poland and Bulgaria’s “communist” Russia’s economic pressure on Europe “ and a medium that supports “escalation” with other EU nations.
2. Is the European plan viable to reduce Russian gas dependence?
Russia currently holds 35% and 40% of its gas needs in Europe.
Despite being invaded by Ukraine, various European countries contribute to plantation how to reduce energy dependence of Moscow.
The first country in the area independence fue Lithuania.
As of 2015, 100% of the gas supply procedure is for Russian imports.
However, the situation changed dramatically during the last few months when a natural liquefied natural gas (GNL) import terminal was constructed high in the port city of Klaipeda.
Ahora, la alternative gas exchange for Russian gas has been converted into a priority algebra for Europe, which has launched the conjunctural plan “REPowerEU”.
The target is to reduce European imports of Russian gas in the third durante el proximo ao.
“The Ukrainian government has made the urgent need of Europe diversifying its gas pointsas well as the objective of moving away from the energy flow of limpias “, explain Mark Lacey, Alexander Monk and Felix Odey, global analysts of Schroders.
“The European plan REPowerEU es extraordinarily ambitious“, added.
Fountain of the image, Getty Images
The price of energy is dispelled by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
In the March finals, the EU signed an important agreement with the United States on natural liquefied natural gas (LNG) for which it is located in Europe, from which to finals, a volume of natural gas equivalent to approximately 10% of what it receives currently from Russia.
“The problem is that EE.UU. you can not offer a sum of amplitudeand Europe is compatible with other parts of the imported GNL cargoes “, said Schroders experts, respectively due to their non-cities due to parts of India and China.
“Other obstruction is that GNL, as its index name, is liquid and can be used to convert it into gas. It undergoes a smooth regeneration process, and Europe does not have the capacity to regenerate of GNL “.
For John Kemp, senior analyst at Reuters, said: the cost of screw is per nubes“.
Fountain of the image, Reuters
3. ¿What are the world level consequences of the Russian decision?
“The gas tanker has a minor impact in Europe while it lasts, and Poland knows that it has sufficient reserves. general militarization of energy“, explicitly Donovan in a market comment.
The embargo, on the Russian gas terminal,Europe can recruit existing gas exporters, such as Qatar, Algeria or Nigeria.
It should also be noted that in October it was ponged into a new gas pipeline from Norway.
In any case, the exact gas prices in Europe follow the announcement of Moscow if disparate around a 20%.
The highest prices of energy derived from the war between Russia and Ukraine mean that probability of an acceleration or recession significativa es major, sobre todo en Europa.
“In the countries of Ingresos Bayos Asia, Africa and Latin America high costs of food and fuels affecting more than just the cost of living, such as cars, furniture, refrigerators, stoves, televisions or computers, cree Kemp, senior market analyst.
“With all consumers under pressure from all major economies, the probability of a recession or other significant acceleration in one or more regions is high and has been affected by affecting the prices of basic industrial products and energy.”
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