- Marcos Gonzalez Diaz
- BBC News World correspondent in Mexico
image source Government of Mexico
For the first time in its history, Mexico will ask its people this Sunday whether they want their president to continue in office or not.
The deliberations are coming to the country, presented as an exercise in democracy, with the firm support of its president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), who is a strong advocate of asking people about various issues in his government.
However, the initiative was categorically rejected by those who consider that this consultation is not necessary, that it only pursues. reaffirm the image of the president who continues to enjoy high popularity, according to surveys.
Previously held in countries such as Venezuela or Bolivia, Mexicans have to choose between two options during this consultation that will determine the future of AMLO. “Until the end of his term in 2024.
But given the low probability that he will win the option of leaving, the real struggle these weeks has focused on those who are supporting the vote to keep the president. and among those who urge abstinence. In fact, there was practically no campaign to vote for its cancellation.
What will be the participation, then, is the biggest key today. In order for the result to be obligatory, it is necessary that at least 40% of the voters do it. According to the legislation, the first one was held in the consultation on the possibility of investigating the former presidents last year. less than 8% voted.
However, AMLO promised to follow up on the outcome of this next meeting, regardless of the number of people present at the polls. “Here, in honor of my beliefs, my principles, my ideals, If the people vote for me to resign, I will leave. “I do not expect it, it does not force that 40% of the list is not participating,” he said.
These are some of the most frequently asked questions (և answers) about the first meeting in Mexico to cancel a presidential term.
1. Why does AMLO support a referendum that might cost it the presidency?
“The first, because he knows that the presidency will not be worth it to him, the second, because populism demands a trial-loading,” he answers. Luis Carlos Ugalde Former President of the Federal Electoral Institute of Mexico.
“And although he hoped there would be a lot of parties offering his resignation, it would give him petrol to file a national lawsuit, hardly anyone contributed to that vote,” he told BBC Mundo. in conversation.
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However, the advocates of the consultation assure that its purpose is nothing but to be a democratic exercise serving the people.
“Since the president started his social struggle more than 30 years ago, he has always promoted democracy; he thinks that if the rulers do not do it, the citizens can remove them. “He says the people put it in, the people take it out.” He says. Gabriela Jimenez Godoy, Follow Democracy National President of the Civic Association.
“She sets an example to be the first [la reforma constitucional sobre la revocación de mandato apenas entró en vigor en 2019]”But what we want is for that to happen to other presidents as well,” he said.
image source AFP:
This association was the one that collected the majority of signatures submitted to the National Electoral Institute (INE) for consultation. It was previously set aside for Morena’s links to the AMLO party, as the law prohibits political groups from dismissing campaigners.
“I have several former deputies in my team, but today they do not exist, they are citizens. “The important thing is that no one has a public position today, so we do not have to use public resources,” his president said in an interview with BBC Mundo.
2. Why is AMLO unlikely to lose?
The great popular acceptance of AMLO makes the unfavorable result practically impossible for it.
According to a survey by Consulta Mitofsky, published in the first week of April, is your approvall: 60.4%: In a poll published by the newspaper El Financiero on April 4, it was 57%.
“That’s why this consultation is unnecessary at the moment, because we have a popular president, a stable country. I do not understand why the tool created for crisis situations should be used by those who have lost trust in the president, the president. I want to remove it, “Ugalde said.
The current director of Integralia Consultores, a legislative-political intelligence company, assures that “this is not for measuring whether it works well or badly. “The advice is to fire someone, because it puts the country in danger.”
image source Getty Images:
Paradoxically, the main association promoting this cancellation consultation does not seek AMLO to resign. instead, he led a campaign to keep him in office.
“The aim is not to show the popularity of the president, that is why the polls. What we want is to set a precedent for using this right as a citizen, so that Lopez Obrador will be the first president to undergo military exercises in order to: “It can be applied to governors and mayors in the future,” said Jimenez Godoy.
3. But what if AMLO loses?
Denmark Ravel, The INE Electoral Adviser cites two articles as a basis for understanding what will happen in the event of an unlikely majority vote-off in the AMLO mandate.
“Article 84 of the Constitution stipulates that the person holding the presidency of the congress of the union will temporarily assume the property of the Executive Power. [presidencia del país] so that for the next 30 days. The names of the Congress who will end the term “ as president, he notes.
image source AFP:
Article 9 of the Organic Law of the General Assembly of the United Mexican States states: “The General Assembly, formed as an electoral body by the consent of at least two-thirds of its members, shall appoint an interim President. The appointment of the Republic will be carried out by secret ballot ասն By a majority vote of the members present.
After last year’s midterm elections, Morena և and her allies lost a qualified majority in Congress (two-thirds) but still make up more than half of the House.
“Extraordinary elections must be held to elect a replacement. If Morena can replace Lopez Obrador, where is the change? If the city puts in and the city removes, then the city has to give back. “All this is a contradiction,” Ugalde criticizes.
The expert predicts that in case of winning the cancellation, Mexico may find itself in a scenario of “political instability” until 2024, when the newly elected president “may become even more radical.”
4. And why does the opposition contribute to non-participation?
Given this panorama, the most common option in the context of AMLO continuity is not to vote for its cancellation, but rather not to participate in the consultation.
Ugalde assures that he will not vote, as it is nothing but a “political rally. campaign to ratify the president “Measure how much he still likes you” և because none of the ballot options represent him.
“Like many, I criticize the government, but it does not mean that I want him to leave his post now. But if I vote for him to stay, the president will say that I am in favor of his government. “I do not see it in the options presented to me. I think abstinence is the best way to participate,” he explains.
image source AFP:
Criticizing that the referendum is nothing more than government propaganda disguised as an exercise in democracy, that there are more important issues in Mexico that need to be addressed, Jimenez Godoy responds that it is “a right-wing strategy, illegal.” to make work in Mexico. ” citizenship. “
“This is a job that millions of people have done to promote democracy. “We believe that Mexico needs to move towards a more direct, participatory democracy, so that citizen consultation is more widespread in our country,” he said.
5. What participation is expected?
Given this scenario, turnout data will be the most anticipated key on Sunday night to find out what its proponents and critics will read at the meeting.
Low voter turnout in last year’s deliberations to try former presidents could set a bad precedent. Two months ago, however, the parliamentary elections won more than 52% of the electorate.
Jimenez Godoy, “Let Democracy Go Back”, realizes that it will be difficult to reach the 40% that will make the result mandatory, and predicts the participation of about 30 million people. [algo menos del 33% del electorado], pointing to the “obstacles of the INC” as a reason, that “they have always wanted to stop this process.”
The tough confrontation between those who promoted the consultation of the electoral body, including the government, was publicly “infamous”, even demanding the positions of the prosecutor’s office և the Supreme Court amidst mutual complaints և accusations և.
image source Getty Images:
INE initially demanded 3.83 billion pesos (about $ 190 million) for the meeting, but the amount authorized by the Chamber of Deputies was much less.
“Despite that, we went ahead with these military exercises with the resources we have.” It was, frankly, a very difficult process. ” recognizes Ravel as an INE consultant in an interview with BBC Mundo.
Ultimately, it guarantees that with this low budget, INE will have about 57,500 polling stations to vote for, which is one-third of the number cast in the federal election.
image source Getty Images:
INE will install thousands of ballot boxes less than in the 2021 parliamentary elections.
On the other hand, Ugalde calculates the participation on Sunday “12 և 15% of voters” but he does not think that will make AMLO recognize the failure of the initiative.
“He will accuse that the people wanted to speak, but INE has blocked that participation, the end of the story will be an irrelevant fact that it will not exceed and will be forgotten in two weeks. “What happened to the meeting of the former presidents, where he forgot two days later,” he concludes.
AMLO has assured at the moment that it will vote in the consultation “because the Democrat must participate”, but will not choose either of the two options. Instead, he announced that he would write on the ballot Long live Emiliano Zapata!
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