Morena’s election machine will be tested next Sunday in a meeting on the cancellation of the mandate, which will show the ability of the ruling party governments to mobilize militants and supporters to vote. The weather is good, with a forecast of a sunny day, the maximum temperature is unlikely to be 29 degrees, or it will be the day of Tsaghkazard, which coincides with Holy Week, so the mobilization operation will face dozens of additional challenges. Thousands of people are going on spring break. But for President Andrés Manuel Lոpez Obrador, for the remaining six years, there is no other way to address the operational failures of managers, to look at their strengths and weaknesses.
Talking about the result is idle. Lopez Obrador, even if it were impossible for people to come out in support of the abolition of his mandate, it would never have happened, even if the president did not have a vote in favor, because of the lack of budget resources of the National Electoral Institute. forced them to reduce by 70 percent the number of polling stations that will be set up in connection with other federal elections, which, according to empirical estimates, will have a maximum turnout of 15 to 17 million people, away from the minimum 40 percent of voters. Nominal list of voters to make the result mandatory. There is no doubt that the president, regardless of the number of participants in the meeting and the percentage of votes, will turn the process into a personal victory, a tool of punishment for those whom he considers opponents.
The consultation turned into a strategic exercise to assess strengths, review logistics, economic competition, and individual inclinations. That is, an examination for Morena in the whole country. There is a lot of speculation in the press about how many votes are suitable for Lopez Obrador to feel satisfied with his subordinates. It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post. There is no clear information on the percentage of quotas allocated to managers, leaders, legislators, but the universe can be traced with the desired minimums and maximums.
Thus, it can be assumed that if only 7.74% of the electorate had been obtained, as was the case during the consultation on the former presidents in August last year, it would probably be considered a strong defeat for the president. , because the mobilization capacity would not give more than about 6 and a half million people to vote. If, on the contrary, the mobilization managed to bring about 17 million people to the polls, as in the congressional elections in June last year, where Morena won 19.4% of the total votes, then the turnout could be considered a great success.
Based on these margins, one can think that the quota appointed by the president will make about 20% participation. Morena governs 18 states, home to 46 percent of the nation, where the main mobilization must take place if governors, in particular, meet the quotas demanded by the president. The strongest entity that Morena has in terms of elections is the city of Mexico City, where last year the head of government Claudia Shanebaum suffered a major defeat, losing half of the mayors.
Lopez Obrador is aware of the difficulties that Scheinbaum will face this Sunday, as during the last week of March he asked him to take over the regional coordination, which includes the state of Mexico, Hidalgo, Morelos and Tlaxcala. Thus, the bad result in the federal capital can be mitigated by the action of the metropolis assigned by him to save the face of his candidate in the 2024 presidential elections.
These elections are the whole effort of the consultation to cancel the mandate. The president will also test his loyalty, like Higgino Martinez, who wants to run for governor of Mexico and has been asked to support Shanebaum. The same was said to Morena’s leader Mario Delgado. The federal government did not inject resources into the states to support them;
However, there was indirect federal support through social programs. In the last part of the resources, twice the amount allocated every two months was distributed, or in the opinion of some beneficiaries, they did not understand that it was an advance payment, not an increase. How the beneficiaries of the program will be compensated, if the funds do not reach them within the next two months, depends on the air. In any case, it will be a problem that will not affect the participation in the poll!
This Sunday’s election campaign is like a horse race, where the spoils are the president’s respect and gratitude. Scheinbaum was very active in promoting the referendum, disguising himself as a supporter of Morena’s nominees or the electricity bill. Other governors deeply involved in promoting the referendum include Kutlauակ Garcանa, Veracruz, Alfonso Durazo, Durango, and the Ministers of the Interior, Economy, Energy, and Culture. Less visibly, Senator Ricardo Montreal, who is living with the president.
There is a whole impudent state operation in favor of the referendum, the starting point for reviewing the organization and mobilization of structures for the 2024 presidential campaign. Lopez Obrador does not want to lose power, he will not allow it to be taken away from him. for that he must know who has it, to whom he fastens it և what are disposable pieces.