Hay que poner fin a la guerra de desgaste en Ukrania

Jeffrey D. Sachs

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Real The reality of the nuclear amenase implicit that the parties must be able to negotiate the possibility. In the picture, a young man sold a piece of land and a mother just with a phone in Kramatorsk.Photo Afp

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as guerras suelen stallar and elongated by the errors of the amount of ambos respecting their relative strength. In the case of Ukraine, Russia is a huge torchbearer to support the determination of the position of the Ukrainians and the efficiency of the weapons provided by OTAN. Ukraine and OTAN have been shown to be able to move to Russia in the battlefield. The result is a boring war, in which young people are created to win, but in the same way that they are lost. Ukraine should intensify the search for a negotiated peace, as it establishes itself in the midst of the finesse of the march and launches apparatus for comedic atrocities by Russia and Bucha (and, at the same time, alters the perception of its military capabilities).

The terminology of the finesse of the march is based on the neutrality of Ukraine, on the basis of guarantees of security and a chronogram for the solution of disputed topics such as the situation in Crimea and Donbás. The Russian and Ukrainian negotiators, as well as the Turkish media, have declared advances in the negotiations. However, Bucha’s notices read in your own words, and the Ukrainian negotiator affirms that The Ukrainian society has a much greater negative activity than any other idea of ​​negotiation implicated in the Russian Federation..

Without embargo, the reason for negotiating is urgently and urgently needed. The alternative is not the victory of Ukraine, but a devastating guerrilla war. To take stock, you have to recalibrate your expectations.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, it was evident that a rapid and easy victory was expected. Supporting the modernization of the Ukrainian air through the military and training ground that proves it from the 2014 United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Substantiate the capacity of the military technology of OTAN to counteract the Russian numerical superiority. And the biggest mistake of Russia, sin duda, fue dar sent sent that the Ukrainians do not have to fight, or including that they pass the band.

But now Ukraine and its allies in the West are trying to outwit Russia in the battlefield. The idea that Russian air is at the point of collapse is a fantasy. Russia has the military capacity to destroy the Ukrainian infrastructure (for example, the railway lines that now whitewash it) and to capture and retain territory in the Donbás region and along the Costa Mar Negro. The ukranios luchan with determination, pero es muy improbable que puedan forzar la derrota rusa.

Tampoco can hacerlo the financial sanctions of Occidente, which much much more abacadoras and efficacious than that which admires the gobernos that are imposing. Sanctions from the United States against Venezuela, Iran, North Korea and other countries do not include exchange rates in the policies of these regimes, and applications from Russia are short of respecting their original originals. Exclude Russian banks from Swift international payment system no results nuclear option of which many hablaban. International Monetary Fund, the Russian economy will shrink to 8.5 per cent by 2022. It is a small result, but not catastrophic.

Además, the sanctions generate economic consequences in the United States and all over Europe. Inflation is expected to rise to a maximum of 40 years and is likely to mantle, but the liquid dollar bills created by the Federal Reserve are ultimately high. At the same time, the economies of the United States and Europe are in a state of disintegration (including contraction), multiplying interruptions in the chains of the Sumerian.

The internal political position of the President of the United States, Joe Biden, is stupid, and it is probable that he’s more stupid in his proxies (and that he dislikes public opinion or war) to emperor economic differences. The conflicting divide of the Republican Party: Trump’s face is not of any interest in a rapprochement with Russia for Ukraine. On the other hand, the Democrats lamented every step of the way, which could cost the majority in one of the Congress chambers (or ambassadors) in the November media choice.

The economically reversible repercussions of the war and the regime of sanctions imposed on a series of tremendous numbers for the number of passable parts depend on the import of food and energy. The economical traverses in these parts generate all the urgent world needed to get to the bottom of the war and the regime of sanctions.

Tanto, the enormous underemployment of Ukraine in terms of death, destruction and destruction is not specified. The FMI predicts that the Ukrainian economy will shrink by 35 per cent by 2022, as a result of the brutal destruction of living quarters, factories, railway installations, warehousing and energy transport teams and other infrastructural structures.

It’s more common to find that it does not end up being the real green escalation risk. The Russian-made casual forces are actually on board (as claimed by the United States), when Russia opposes tactical nuclear weapons. It should be noted that the United States and Russia are sending a plane from another part of a mission to the Black Sea, which is directly linked to a direct military base. Information that the presence of unidentified forces in the field and the revelation of the intelligence community that belongs to Ukraine to the general general of the Russians inside the Russian insignia in the Black Sea send information.

The reality of the nuclear amenase implies that both parties must always be able to negotiate. It is the central encyclopedia of the crisis of the Cuban nations, from which the October close is completed 60 years. At the moment, President John F. Kennedy is trying to negotiate a final solution to the crisis, as the United States agrees not to invade Cuba and retaliate against Turkey and the Soviet Union for trying to seduce them. que tenía in Cuba. He did not give in to a Soviet nuclear chant, he made a prudent decision by Kennedy to avoid an armament.

All rights reserved. In Ukraine you can see the parameters that are negotiated in fines: neutrality, guarantees of security, a mark for the solution of the problems of Crimea and Donbass and the Russian retrospect. Following is the realistic and secure option for Ukraine, Russia and the world. The international community approves of a natural escalation; y por su propia supervivencia y bienestar, lo mismo debe hacer Ucrania.

Translation: Esteban Flamini

Jeffrey D. Sachs is Distinguished Professor at Columbia University and Director of the Center of Desarrollo Sostenible. También is president of the Red of Solutions of Desarrollo Sostenible of the United Nations.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2022.www.project-syndicate.org

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