What do we really know about the health of Vladimir Putin? (Analysis)

(CNN) — The director of the CIA, Bill Burns, made an unusually sincere evaluation this week, when he told the assistants of the Aspen Institute’s Annual Security Forum that the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, is “too healthy”.

Burns fue cuidadoso al matizar sus comentarios, apparently ironically, diciendo que no constituían “un juicio formal de inteligencia”.

But when he asked directly if Putin was not healthy or unstable, he said: “Hay muchos rumores sobre la salud del presidente Putin y, hasta donde sabemos, está completamente, demasiado sano”.

Then, what should we think about Putin’s health speculations? Estos rumors no son nada nuevo.

Su lenguaje corporal, su forma de hablar y su forma de andar han sido objeto de un scrutinio implacable. And every time that Putin disappears from the public’s view for a few days, or even in a slight false step, as he did recently after landing in Tehran, he can trigger a round of intense speculation in the style of the tabloids about his physical well-being.

Esa es la naturaleza del “putinismo”, una especie de postmoderna dictadura construida en torno a un hombre. The Kremlin has made an effort to create an aura around Putin as the country’s only problem solver: he is actually the presenter of an annual call program in which he literally assumes the role of official solution.

Y a lo largo de two decades ha consolidado el poder a través de un sistema que se rige por los caprichos y las fijaciones de una persona (evidence case: the invasion of Ukraine).

So, without a clear successor to Putin, Russia is siempre a unos quantos estornudos de una total political crisis.

The Kremlin habitually ridicules any speculation about Putin’s health; el jueves, the spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Putin felt “good” and “good health” before describing the speculations in the opposite sense as “nada más que engaños”.

But Burns’ statement, even though it’s a joke, probably doesn’t say much more about Western politicians than about Putin’s state of health.

Before starting, it reflects a strong element of making castles in the air when dealing with the leader of the Kremlin. Sugiere que las crisis internationales más preocupantes could simply evaporate as I personally, Putin, disappear from the world scene.

Y esa es una posible interpretación errónea de Rusia. Without a doubt, the decision to invade Ukraine is redujo a una persona: el presidente, que parece estar impulsado por su propia lectura deformada de la historia y una dosis de ambition imperial.

Y el enfrentamiento de Rusia con Occidente ha estado impulsado durante años por los agravios personales de una persona que se lamentaba del collapsa de la Unión Soviet.

Pero es ingenuo esperar que el putinismo no siga vivo sin Putin.

Almost half a year after the invasion, Putin’s grand losses in the battlefield have not been provoked, but, for example, una resistencia generalizada al recrutamiento.

The Russian population, with the exception of thousands of detainees in anti-war protests, has more or less passively accepted the economic pain of the new sanctions imposed on their country.

Putin’s popularity index, as we look at the results of the WCIOM state poll, has risen since the February 24 invasion.

Las declaraciones del director de la CIA, en su contexto, reflectan lo difícil que es entender a Putin, alguien cuyos procesos de toma de decisiones son opacos para el mundo exterior.

Burns pointed out Putin’s reduced confidence circle. But during the pandemic, the isolation of Putin adquirió una dimension muy física, como se vio en sus meetings with algunos lídes mundiales en una mesa absurdamente larga.

The extreme distancing of Putin seems to reflect until where he is willing to reach the Kremlin before protecting his physical health and, by extension, any information about his health.

Just before the invasion, French President Emmanuel Macron declined the Kremlin’s request for a Russian covid-19 test, Elíseo said, at the time he refused to comment on media reports that Macron did not want. los médicos rusos pusieran sus manos en su ADN.

It’s just to speculate that the environment of Putin did the same thing before avoiding providing any clues about his health to any interfering foreign intelligence services.

El análisi de Rusia se reduce a menudo al estudio de una persona. But, as Burns will recall, las políticas consensuadas del ultimo soviet Politburó even so cometieron un garrafal error in the disastrous war of Afghanistan in 1979.

Y, como muchos ucranianos se apresuran a señalar, los rusos aún no han hecho un verdadero ajuste de cuentas con su pastado soviet imperial.

Cualquier esperanza de cambio es lejana: si hay que creer a Burns, y si la historia sirve de guía, es probable que Putin esté por aquí hasta que alcance a Brezhnev.

— Katie Bo Lillis contributed to this report.

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